Betfair, HSX and the Oscars

For those of you who believe that financial betting markets offer the best predictive capabilities around outcomes – Betfair is by far the largest and most accurate. Unfortunately, the Oscars is voted on by Hollywood glitterati.

By comparison, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (virtual game with virtual money “investing” in movie outcomes, Oscars, etc), they also have a similar prediction system.

I compared the two markes to see who the winner would be. It’s remarkable that both markets agreed on the winners of the awards for the categories that they both had. Here is a quick roundup of who the predicted winners of tonight’s Oscars are, by category and Market. I’ll follow up this post with the actual winners and see how each market scored. I’m only using the markets that Betfair allowed bets in, so some categories are not included and in other HSX had no markets open.

Oscar Predictions

Comments

  1. # BEST PICTURE – “The Departed,” Graham King, producer
    # BEST DIRECTOR – Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
    # BEST ACTOR – Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
    # BEST ACTRESS – Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
    # BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”
    # BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
    # BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – “Little Miss Sunshine,” Michael Arndt
    # BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – “The Departed”, William Monahan
    # BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM – “An Inconvenient Truth”, Davis Guggenheim, director; Laurie David, Lawrence Bender, producers
    # BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – “The Lives of Others”, Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
    # BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – “Happy Feet”, George Miller, director
    # BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – “Babel,” Gustavo Santaolalla
    # BEST ORIGINAL SONG – “I Need to Wake Up” Melissa Etheridge (from “An Inconvenient Truth”)
    # BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM – “The Danish Poet”, Torill Kove, director
    # BEST ART DIRECTION – “Pan’s Labyrinth” Eugenio Caballero, art direction; Pilar Revuelta, set decoration
    # BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – “Pan’s Labyrinth”, Guillermo Navarro
    # BEST COSTUME DESIGN – “Marie Antoinette,” Milena Canonero
    # BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM – “The Blood of Yingzhou District”, Ruby Yang, Thomas Lennon
    # BEST FILM EDITING – “The Departed”, Thelma Schoonmaker
    # BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM – “West Bank Story,” Ari Sandel, director
    # BEST MAKEUP – “Pan’s Labyrinth”, David Marti, Montse Ribe
    # BEST SOUND EDITING – “Letters From Iwo Jima”, Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman
    # BEST SOUND MIXING – “Dreamgirls,” Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, Willie Burton
    # BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson, Allen Hall

  2. # BEST PICTURE – “The Departed,” Graham King, producer
    # BEST DIRECTOR – Martin Scorsese, “The Departed”
    # BEST ACTOR – Forest Whitaker, “The Last King of Scotland”
    # BEST ACTRESS – Helen Mirren, “The Queen”
    # BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – Alan Arkin, “Little Miss Sunshine”
    # BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Jennifer Hudson, “Dreamgirls”
    # BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – “Little Miss Sunshine,” Michael Arndt
    # BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – “The Departed”, William Monahan
    # BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM – “An Inconvenient Truth”, Davis Guggenheim, director; Laurie David, Lawrence Bender, producers
    # BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – “The Lives of Others”, Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
    # BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – “Happy Feet”, George Miller, director
    # BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – “Babel,” Gustavo Santaolalla
    # BEST ORIGINAL SONG – “I Need to Wake Up” Melissa Etheridge (from “An Inconvenient Truth”)
    # BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM – “The Danish Poet”, Torill Kove, director
    # BEST ART DIRECTION – “Pan’s Labyrinth” Eugenio Caballero, art direction; Pilar Revuelta, set decoration
    # BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – “Pan’s Labyrinth”, Guillermo Navarro
    # BEST COSTUME DESIGN – “Marie Antoinette,” Milena Canonero
    # BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM – “The Blood of Yingzhou District”, Ruby Yang, Thomas Lennon
    # BEST FILM EDITING – “The Departed”, Thelma Schoonmaker
    # BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM – “West Bank Story,” Ari Sandel, director
    # BEST MAKEUP – “Pan’s Labyrinth”, David Marti, Montse Ribe
    # BEST SOUND EDITING – “Letters From Iwo Jima”, Alan Robert Murray, Bub Asman
    # BEST SOUND MIXING – “Dreamgirls,” Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer, Willie Burton
    # BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest,” John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson, Allen Hall

  3. Blog Tips says:

    thank you for sharing