For those of you who believe that financial betting markets offer the best predictive capabilities around outcomes – Betfair is by far the largest and most accurate. Unfortunately, the Oscars is voted on by Hollywood glitterati.
By comparison, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (virtual game with virtual money “investing” in movie outcomes, Oscars, etc), they also have a similar prediction system.
I compared the two markes to see who the winner would be. It’s remarkable that both markets agreed on the winners of the awards for the categories that they both had. Here is a quick roundup of who the predicted winners of tonight’s Oscars are, by category and Market. I’ll follow up this post with the actual winners and see how each market scored. I’m only using the markets that Betfair allowed bets in, so some categories are not included and in other HSX had no markets open.