Freemium models will weather the downturn
There are two models for any online business, either the user pays or someone else does…
We conducted a survey at Web 2.0 expo earlier this month, and here are the findings:
* 78 percent of respondents believed the freemium model will weather the economic downturn, compared to 27 percent who put their faith in subscription-based models.
* 90 percent of respondents believe partnerships will be a driving factor for Web 2.0 innovation over the next year.
* 46 percent of respondents saw strategic partnerships as the fastest route to profitability; 42 percent believe its only subscription-based services, while only 39 percent believed it was advertising.
* Only 8 percent believed online auction sites will grow this year.
* 97 percent of respondents use Web 2.0 tools (Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, etc.) to establish an online persona.
The survey, promoted through Twitter, was conducted both online and at the Yola booth.
Most startups are evaluating their options right now. Ad revenue has dropped – not so much in aggregate spend, but more in aggregate price – some estimates are that CPM’s are down 80%? Anyone wonder why?
Contrary to the popular belief of most startup founders, advertisers are not interested in just buying advertising because they have money to spend and you have eyeballs. Google AdSense is not just a cash printing machine. Advertising needs to translate into real ROI for the advertisers or sooner or later they will abandon you. With consumer spending down (along with conversion rates), advertisers are getting smart and pulling advertising from sites that don’t convert, and increasing it on sites that do convert. This does not bode well for websites that cannot drive value for advertisers. What most people don’t realize is that Search is not like traditional advertising – you’re BUYING customers. There are too many business models out there that rely on advertisers to support the business, but do not drive positive ROI for the advertiser. These businesses are headed for rocky times (in fact, it’s already upon them!).
So, I’m not saying that you shouldn’t build great websites that people want to use – just be prepared to start charging for it if your traffic is not targeted or qualified for advertisers. Twitter is a great example – if they decide to monetize via advertising, they need to deliver customers to advertisers; if they can’t and the traffic doesn’t convert, then their business model will be to charge users for the service. Someone needs to pay to keep the lights on.
At the end of the day, the cost of inventory is the issue – the market prices will gravitate toward real value in order to improve the ROI’s for advertisers – but that really places your business model at the mercy of your advertisers and their budgets (and their ability to convert your users into customers). I’d rather be offering additional value added services that a small % of users would pay for on a regular basis, rather than try to monetize solely via advertising – and I’d advise other startups to start looking into that too…
The online advertising goldrush is over – time to start building real business that deliver real value…





