The Dunning-Kruger Effect and Search Engine Marketing

I got the inspiration for this post from Llew Claasen’s post on the newly launched Thought Leader portal in South Africa.

In the world of Pay Per Click & Search Engine Marketing, the Dunning-Kruger Effect is probably the most prominent phenomenon within the industry.  This is very true specifically of traditional advertising agencies who brand themselves as “PPC Experts”, who use 3rd party software in order to manage their clients campaigns.  The use of 3rd party tools is not a bad idea, and I endorse products such as SpeedPPC, when used by those who are capable of running their own campaigns.  The problem that arise from the use of 3rd party tools, is that it doesn’t allow the smart marketers to think outside the box and make code level modification that can enhance a client’s campaign, as you would with proprietary software.  Clicks2Customers has built a very powerful proprietary platform that is not available to 3rd parties (except clients), as they utilize it to enhance their existing client campaigns and constantly are improving the platform and keeping it in line with industry developments, something that is difficult when you’re servicing 3rd party needs.

The Dunning-Kruger experiment was accurately based on the following hypothesis:

Kruger and Dunning noted a number of previous studies which tend to suggest that in skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis, “ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge” (as Charles Darwin put it). They hypothesized that with a typical skill which humans may possess in greater or lesser degree,

  1. incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill,
  2. incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others,
  3. incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy,
  4. if they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.

The CJU conference as always has been great,  but in listening to some of people here (including Ad Agencies), I realise more and more that there are people in this industry who’s campaigns rely on other people who have convinced them that they are “Expert Search Marketers” or Agencies, and these people are really victims of people infected by the Dunning-Kruger Effect.   I had to sit through at least 2 sessions with people who are so infected with the DK Effect, that I had to take anti-biotics!  These people actually believe their own bullsh*t!

After getting a new client, we often find that they were being duped by their previous agency who believed that they knew what they were doing, but unfortunately, were relying on software built by people who cannot run campaigns profitably.  In most cases, the goal is to spend budget, and not generate profitable sales.

I often come across DK’s (Dunning-Kruger infected people), who just don’t realise how incompetent they are.  Hell, I’ve worked with them in my companies, but unfortunately, the only solution is not telling them they are wrong, but either letting them make their own mistakes, or if they’re willing, assist them by training them.   This is often not possible though, as many of these DK’s suffer from the Lake Wobegon Effect, which basically is “the human tendency to overestimate one’s achievements and capabilities in relation to others”.  When DK’s have both the Lake Wobegon Effect & the Dunning-Kruger effect, what you then have on your hands is a big problem.

What’s my point?  The Search Engine Marketing industry is filled with Charlatans, DK’s and LW’s who haven’t got a clue of how to build and run a ROI positive search campaign.  Instead, you have big media companies that hire age old executives who have never logged into Adwords, and tell them to run teams of dozens or even hundreds of people and manage client campaigns using tools built by another company.  With overhead that high, the goals are not ROI or Sales, it’s spending budget, being in position #1, generating sales from head & brand words, writing down negative ROI to “Momentum Marketing (Social Network BS)” or “Branding”, and meeting targets in order to pay the bills.

I had a chat with the founder of a UK based SEM company, and asked him why he didn’t change his model to performance marketing, and not % of spend – his answer was that he simply would not make as much money. Ok – so instead, he spends clients money inefficiently in order to line their pockets – great idea! Are you also being duped?

How do we change things? Well, for one, stop paying agencies a % of spend – if they can’t make money on revenue share or performance basis, then look elsewhere. Otherwise, play a flat fee for monthly services.  Do not use agencies that use 3rd party software – it’s like driving a car made of second hand parts from other cars.

Lastly, knowledge is power – so if you’re in South Africa, sign up for our newly launched SEM courses at KeyJam.net (shameless plug! :-) )

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Comments On This Post

  1. Derrick Kotze Says:
    September 11, 2007 at 9:34 pm

    Hallelujah!

  2. Jean-Marie Le Ray Says:
    September 11, 2007 at 10:22 pm

    Hi Vinny,

    I don’t understand absolutely nothing to Adwords and on how top run a SEM campaign, but surely it would be a pleasure to be trained by you and your team!
    Jean-Marie

  3. Michael Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 1:13 am

    Great blog – the flipside is that the existence of DKs in PPC allows great opportunities for competent operaters! In an efficient market, there would be no room for the start up. So, thank goodness for DKs!!

  4. Derrick Kotze Says:
    September 11, 2007 at 7:34 pm

    Hallelujah!

  5. Jean-Marie Le Ray Says:
    September 11, 2007 at 8:22 pm

    Hi Vinny,

    I don’t understand absolutely nothing to Adwords and on how top run a SEM campaign, but surely it would be a pleasure to be trained by you and your team!
    Jean-Marie

  6. Michael Says:
    September 11, 2007 at 11:13 pm

    Great blog – the flipside is that the existence of DKs in PPC allows great opportunities for competent operaters! In an efficient market, there would be no room for the start up. So, thank goodness for DKs!!

  7. Andre Van Kets Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 8:45 am

    Hi Vinny,

    Love this post. I’m gonna start calling all my DK-like friends DK’s :)

    But seriously – I coincidently printed out and read the RS/PS special report just yesterday and was impressed with the simple yet compelling argument.

    Makes me pleased to be a client of your’s (Incubeta’s), rather than trying to run it myself or using a DK-company. At least I can spot a DK when I see one.

    Further – our campaign manager Charles has impressed me tremendously and I am looking forward to when my campaign can go on a RS/PS model. We started off on a fixed-cost model for the first 3-months while the keywords settle down and we establish some base statistics.

    Andre

  8. Andre Van Kets Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 6:45 am

    Hi Vinny,

    Love this post. I’m gonna start calling all my DK-like friends DK’s :)

    But seriously – I coincidently printed out and read the RS/PS special report just yesterday and was impressed with the simple yet compelling argument.

    Makes me pleased to be a client of your’s (Incubeta’s), rather than trying to run it myself or using a DK-company. At least I can spot a DK when I see one.

    Further – our campaign manager Charles has impressed me tremendously and I am looking forward to when my campaign can go on a RS/PS model. We started off on a fixed-cost model for the first 3-months while the keywords settle down and we establish some base statistics.

    Andre

  9. Mike Perk Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 6:56 pm

    Well said Vinny. I’m sending everyone in our office a link to this post in case they start getting too cocky.

  10. Vinny Lingham Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 7:04 pm

    Thanks everyone. I’m glad you enjoyed the post – I’m getting lots good of feedback on it. The reality is that there are too many people out there, who honestly believe that 12-24 months search engine experience makes them an expert. This is unfortunately not even close to the case. I’ve had employees joining and within 3 months, they believe they know everything, so I understand first hand how this syndrome works. For those of you who are experts of your own domain, I’m sure this rings true to most any other subject matter. True insight and experience takes many years, not months to perfect, and using service providers that are “new” to the game for any business, is risky.

  11. Matt Enders Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 7:13 pm

    Hi Vinny,

    Great post! The quantity of people running around the internet industry with inadequate amounts of experience never ceases to amaze me. Thanks for shining the light on this and for doing so in a very entertaining way!

  12. Matt Cook Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 9:27 pm

    Awesome post Vinny. I am gonna send this to my friends who are starting to get interested in PPC. You had some really great insights. Way to go.

    Thanks

  13. Mike Perk Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 4:56 pm

    Well said Vinny. I’m sending everyone in our office a link to this post in case they start getting too cocky.

  14. Vinny Lingham Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 5:04 pm

    Thanks everyone. I’m glad you enjoyed the post – I’m getting lots good of feedback on it. The reality is that there are too many people out there, who honestly believe that 12-24 months search engine experience makes them an expert. This is unfortunately not even close to the case. I’ve had employees joining and within 3 months, they believe they know everything, so I understand first hand how this syndrome works. For those of you who are experts of your own domain, I’m sure this rings true to most any other subject matter. True insight and experience takes many years, not months to perfect, and using service providers that are “new” to the game for any business, is risky.

  15. Matt Enders Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 5:13 pm

    Hi Vinny,

    Great post! The quantity of people running around the internet industry with inadequate amounts of experience never ceases to amaze me. Thanks for shining the light on this and for doing so in a very entertaining way!

  16. Matt Cook Says:
    September 12, 2007 at 7:27 pm

    Awesome post Vinny. I am gonna send this to my friends who are starting to get interested in PPC. You had some really great insights. Way to go.

    Thanks

  17. Mike Mothner Says:
    September 14, 2007 at 5:38 pm

    Vinny,

    I could not agree with you more. Perhaps the bigger challenge than simply dealing with the DK’s is helping clients or potential clients understand that there really is a difference between those firms with powerful proprietary platforms (like those that Clicks2Customers and Wpromote has) versus those that simply use “off-the-shelf” solutions that are inherently imperfect for the needs of their clients.

    To the poor clients, some of the biggest DK’s are the most convincing salespeople!

    Saw you briefly at CJU, but didn’t have a chance to catch up. Anyhow, good to see you are of course doing well!

  18. Mike Mothner Says:
    September 14, 2007 at 3:38 pm

    Vinny,

    I could not agree with you more. Perhaps the bigger challenge than simply dealing with the DK’s is helping clients or potential clients understand that there really is a difference between those firms with powerful proprietary platforms (like those that Clicks2Customers and Wpromote has) versus those that simply use “off-the-shelf” solutions that are inherently imperfect for the needs of their clients.

    To the poor clients, some of the biggest DK’s are the most convincing salespeople!

    Saw you briefly at CJU, but didn’t have a chance to catch up. Anyhow, good to see you are of course doing well!

  19. Wiseaff Says:
    September 26, 2007 at 5:47 pm

    CJU 2007: Reflections, Incites, Rumors, Videos, and Wiseaff Remarks……

    Wow, it’s been over a week since I got home from Commission Junction University, and although I am just about caught up, I thought it would be a good time to get some of my thoughts and reflections together about the event. Arrival in Santa BarbaraI a…

  20. Wiseaff Says:
    September 26, 2007 at 3:47 pm

    CJU 2007: Reflections, Incites, Rumors, Videos, and Wiseaff Remarks……

    Wow, it’s been over a week since I got home from Commission Junction University, and although I am just about caught up, I thought it would be a good time to get some of my thoughts and reflections together about the event. Arrival in Santa BarbaraI a…

  21. Blog Tips Says:
    August 16, 2009 at 10:36 pm

    thank you for sharing

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Vinny Lingham is an International Award winning Entrepreneur & Search Engine Marketer. He is currently CEO of Free Website maker, Yola.

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