Web 1.0 De Ja Vu

Web 2.0 is merely next generation Web 1.0 (duh!). Isn’t it strange how many Web 1.0 business models are resurfacing and calling themselves Web 2.0! Many of the social networks today, are successors to websites from the Web 1.0 era. Cnet covers the Top 5 Dot Bombs of the late 90’s boom. It’s scary to see how many of these models are resurging! Cnet also has Top 10 list to go with the video.

Along with the boom of the Web 2.0 economy, guess what’s now come back into action : First Tuesday! Investors, still kicking themselves for not investing in companies such as Skype & YouTube are now waking up to the smell of fresh cash and First Tuesday provides that platform, as it did back in the last boom! I have the pleasure of being the keynote at next month’s event in Johannesburg.

Not only is First Tuesday back, but there is a new gathering, known as Open Coffee Club – basically similar to FT, and it was started by Saul Klein in London. There will be a Cape Town meeting tomorrow so check it out. Eric Edelstein (incuBeta co-founder) also has some coverage on his blog.

I wrote a post a while back on Web 1.0 vs Web 2.0 and what I didn’t add was the similarity been FuckedCompany & TechCrunch’s Deadpool (which also came as an April Fool’s hoax this year).

People often ask me whether or not I think we’re heading for a bust or not. Let me try to answer this as succinctly as possible by stating facts:

1. Online media has grown into a $20bn+ a year business
2. Advertising chases audience
3. Companies building user bases now have sustainable monetization streams
4. In any boom, there are often a large number of startups, some successful, other not. The winners usually outweigh the losers in the long term.
5. If there is a bust, it will be because of large irrational sums of money being thrown at startups. Peter Rip covers the point of “Fail Fast, Fail Often” very nicely in his blog post.

So – are we in a Boom/Bust cycle? Yes & No! Yes – we are in a boom & yes it will bust. Will the bust be as bad as before – no, as there is still a healthy amount of skepticism in the marketplace, which is good!

The million dollar question: How long will it last? I think that for the next 5-7 years, we will see a long sustained boom, (barring WW3), but after that, the pace will slow rapidly. What am I basing this on? Thumbsuck to an extent, but also, from a global perspective, countries like South Africa and Australia are just getting into this cycle (Web 2.0) right now – arguably a bit late, but there is still plenty of domestic opportunities around and I see that most countries that haven’t caught on will take 5-7 years for this cycle to peak and then drop off. Thumbsuck – yes, possible – definitely!

What will it all mean? As with any drop off (aka Bust) people who have no passion for the industry and were just in it to make a buck are going to go back to whatever profession they were in before joining the bandwagon, the industry contracts and a whole new era begins…

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